Author NFL Football 2024-25

[authorbytrade]

Should be an interesting NFL season. I won't provide much analysis for the NFL selections but will offer up some thoughts as they apply

#465 2X Tennessee Titans +4.5

Starting the season off with a 2X wager. I think that Tennessee made a lot of under-the-radar additions in the off-season that were high quality, while the Bears made a bunch of hyped-up additions that are baked into the line. Tennessee's hiring of Bill Callahan to coach the O-Line is going to benefit QB Levis a lot and they've surrounded their young QB with a lot of talented skill position players. I like their RB duo and additions on D. New Bears QB Williams is talented but I have no problem fading a QB making his first start in the NFL...it's a different world out there. This should be very close game, gimme the points.

#476 Seattle Seahawks -5.5

Not the stadium you want to make your NFL debut at QB in. The Seahawks D is going to be improved and I'm expecting a very good year from QB Smith and the Seahawks new offensive scheme.

 

[G-Man!]

I'll retract what I said. I misunderstood your response.

GL this season.

 

[authorbytrade]

#468 Arizona/Buffalo Under 48.5

I hate missing good numbers. I was hoping to see this tick to a WA 49 or better with some "we get a full season from Kyler Murray" and some "WR Harrison is going to dominate in fantasy" hype but it seems that common sense has taken hold instead, so we grab the best remaining number before it bottoms past 48. Changing offensive schemes is never easy in the NFL and the Cardinals will be doing that while relying on a QB returning from injury and a rookie as their primary WR. Everyone is expecting the Buffalo O to take a step back this year but QB Allen is a legit game changer and they I like RB Cook. I think we get this one with a slow start while the Cardinals find their play calling momentum and Allen figures out his WR hierarchy. Buffalo never an easy place to play and the crowd should be boisterous. Give me the downside while its still over the key number of 48.

 

[authorbytrade]

Hit a last minute teaser:

4 teams 6 pt:

Baltimore +8.5
Cincinnati -2.5
Dallas +8.5
Seattle PK

 

[authorbytrade]

#457 Pittsburgh +4.5 (Circa)

I might be betting this a little early but this line is high enough for me to move in and expect it to be the peak. I think Russell Wilson is out. That would see Justin Fields start at QB and gives some reason for this line move. I am going to take a contrarian stance here. After what we have seen in his last 10-15 starts, considering his current form, and noting the fact that if he plays his mobility would be limited, how much do you think Russell Wilson is actually worth ATS? I don't think it's 1.5 points and I have his VOR as no better than Fields. Also, a QB switch sets up multiple positive scenarios for the Steeler that might not exist, or would be lessened, if Wilson started. With Fields at QB I think 3 positive things happen: 1) The Steelers know they must turn this into a defensive battle and their better unit becomes the focus of the gameplan and we get "step-up" emotions from a defense that is full of emotional, talented players 2) Fields presence at QB means more carries for Najee Harris, shortening the game (which benefits the dog) and increasing the physicality. It also probably means more check downs, screens, and draw plays which gets the Steelers superior playmaker Jaylen Warren more touches than he would have gotten normally. This is a plus for the Steeler O. 3) We get Fields with visions of taking over the starting QB job. With less time to prepare and forced into a more limited game scheme/playcalling, I think that puts him into instinct mode and he focuses on two things...avoiding TO's and when faced with a decision, simply take off and run. Fields at the QB position, scrambling on a fast turf vs the Falcons spread out D is absolutely the most dynamic offense the Steelers could create. If Wilson sits (he will), I get the benefit of a +1.5 line move that gives me the 3 and the 4 and I think the Steelers will actually be in a better spot from an ATS perspective. If Wilson plays, he was already sack prone and lessening in mobility anyway, so the fact that a different gameplan is forced upon him is a benefit for the Steelers for most of the same reasons listed above and new OC Arthur Smith would welcome any opportunity to play as smash-mouth as possible. Whether real or not, the Falcons will have to gameplan for both QB's which is hugely beneficial for the Steelers. Some Falcons hype in the off-season too about their young core but they are starting an aging QB returning from a serious injury, the Steelers absolutely own them and bring the better D, and no one knows the Atlanta offensive personnel better than Arthur Smith, who comes to Pittsburgh from Atlanta. I might regret it if Wilson winds up hobbling around for a half, but gimme the points.

 

[indiana]

author....BOL with your action buddy......indy

 

[authorbytrade]

Feel like I capped very well and should have gotten better results. Getting the good number in the Seattle game gave me a winner. Deserved a much better fate in that Tennessee game. I love looking at numbers and trying to make good wagers but anyone who tells you that the NFL is not the most "luck" influenced ATS sport is lying. BABIP can really effect your baseball wagering but not nearly as harshly as TO's and random events in NFL games. There is simply too much talent equality, the lines are so tight, and the nature and process of scoring is so unique. Fumble into the end zone and give away 7 points, you can kiss that ATS win good-bye. Give up a Pick 6 or special teams TD, you can usually kiss covering ATS as well. In other sports you can overcome random fluctuation errors and still have effective ATS results, in the NFL when randomness smacks you, you are generally doomed.

NFL Football Record:

Dogs (PK to +3.5)
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 1-0 = 100% = +1.0 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >)
Faves (-1 to -3.5)
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 1-0 = 100% = +1.0 units
Totals OVER -
Totals UNDER - 0-1 = 0.00% = -1.1 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
Teasers = 0-1 = 0.0% = -.5 units

Overall - 2-3 = 40% = -1.8 units

 

[authorbytrade]

Weak college board for this week but Week #2 in the NFL is generally a good week to wager for a dog bettor like myself. I like the NFL board.

For 9-15:

#264 Baltimore -8
#266 Carolina +6 (Stations)
#267 New Orleans/Dallas Over 46
#272 Green Bay +3 (-115)

Waiting on line moves for a couple more. I will be on Atlanta when the line hits +7 (it will), Tennessee if I can get +4.5 (-115) or better, and Denver +3 or ML just prior to kick, whichever pops better first.

 

[indiana]

author.....BOL with all your week 2 action buddy.....indy

 

[uscmd]

With you on Bal, and Dal/NO over. But Car quite possibly is the worst team in the league. Harbaugh will insure both lines, Off and Def dominate. I think this is a 10 pt+ win for the bolts.

BOL 2 u

 

[authorbytrade]

With you on Bal, and Dal/NO over. But Car quite possibly is the worst team in the league. Harbaugh will insure both lines, Off and Def dominate. I think this is a 10 pt+ win for the bolts.

BOL 2 u

Yup, lots of reasons to dislike Carolina on a weekly basis. I think if they are going to be competitive in the first 5 weeks, this is the game. LA going West to East for an early start time. Carolina falls into a 70+% angle favoring teams who lost by 30+ and then are dogs of >4. I also think I caught the peak of the line so I should have some +EV at kickoff. Carolina does have NFL level players, they can't possibly be as bad as they looked LW. We will see.

 

[authorbytrade]

#276 Minnesota +5
#280 Tennessee +4.5 (-120) (Circa)
#288 Denver +3 (-115)
#291 Atlanta +6.5

 

[indiana]

auth ........here's to a winning Sun. buddy......indy

 

[authorbytrade]

This week' teaser:

5 teams 6.5 points:

Baltimore -2.5
Houston PK
LA Rams +7.5
Denver +9
NY Giants/Washington Over 36.5

 

[authorbytrade]

#290 Chicago/Houston Under 46

 

[authorbytrade]

Already have the Falcons at +6.5. Lets hit a few props for tonight:

Falcons Ray Ray McCloud over 2.5 receptions
Falcons QB Cousins didn't look completely comfortable in Week #1 and some noticed him not pushing off his back foot when making throws. This isn't usually correctable in one week's time and he is still overcoming a severe Achille's injury sustained in his mid 30's....it's going to linger. Normally, for other teams, this might lead me to look toward TE receiving props as the QB might use them as a escape valve BUT the Falcons deploy TE Pitts more like a WR and his route tree is different than most TE's due to his skill set. That leaves Ray Ray McCloud in the safety valve role and this showed in Week #1. When deployed by San Fran McCloud was always productive but buried on then depth chart, here he only has to ascend equally with Darnell Mooney, something much easier to do. McCloud had 4 catches in Week #1 but was targeted 7 times. I think the Eagles will leave WR London in regular coverage and take the stance that Cousins will struggle to get him the ball due to arm velocity (like last week), they will double and over/under Pitts. I think that splits about 10-12 looks between Mooney and McCloud and McClouds routes are shorter and completions easier. We could get 3 catches for 12 yards and win this wager.

Atlanta/Philadelphia Longest TD Under 39.5 yards
Cousins did not press the ball at all in Week #1 and if it is due to his lingering injury or poor mechanics due to same, he won't be able to utilize Drake London the way he should. No AJ Brown means likely double coverage for Smith and he's their big play guy. The Falcons have a good secondary and will be funneling routes to it, hopefully, preventing Smith from getting over the top. The Falcons want to control the ball, the clock, and limit Cousins chance for mistakes, I don't think they are going to take a lot of shot. Smith is fast and there is always the chance that Barkley gets free but I think the situation favors the Under here and if a big play gets me, so be it.

Kirk Cousins Over 225 yards passing
Week #2 is over-reaction week in the NFL and we've seen that come to pass. This doesn't just apply to teams but to individual performances as well. Cousins did look poor in Week #1 but that was against a very good defense with a great HC who had the entire summer to gameplan for that matchup. Here, vs a weaker D with less prep-time, Cousins should be better and he has a plethora of solid offensive weapons. Yes, the Falcons want to run the ball and control the clock. Maybe, Cousins isn't 100% back to form but this number is an over-reaction to Week #1. I think we can get this number in regular gameflow within a Falcons gameplan that allows them to cover and/or win SU, if the Falcons fall behind and have to take to the air this is a minuscule number to achieve.

 

[authorbytrade]

Flipping quarters. Slight winning week.

NFL Football Record:

Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1-1 = 50.0% = -0.15 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 3-2 = 60.0% = +0.8 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >)
Faves (-1 to -3.5)
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 1-1 = 50% = -0.1 units
Totals OVER - 1-0 = 100% = +1.0 units
Totals UNDER - 1-1 = 50.0% = -0.1 units
2X Dogs - 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
Teasers - 0-2 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
Prop Bets - 2-1 = 66.7% = +0.9

Overall - 9-9 = 50% = -0.85 units

 

[authorbytrade]

Waited and waited for the best line, they just messed with the money rather than go to +7, so this will have to do:

#301 New England +7 (-120)

 

[authorbytrade]

Dead set wrong side, never had a chance. We'll try to do better on Sunday.

NFL Football Record:

Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1-1 = 50.0% = -0.15 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 3-3 = 50.0% = -0.4 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >)
Faves (-1 to -3.5)
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 1-1 = 50% = -0.1 units
Totals OVER - 1-0 = 100% = +1.0 units
Totals UNDER - 1-1 = 50.0% = -0.1 units
2X Dogs - 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
Teasers - 0-2 = 0.0% = -1.0 units
Prop Bets - 2-1 = 66.7% = +0.9

Overall - 9-10 = 47.4% = -2.05 units

 

[authorbytrade]

For 9-22:

#454 Indianapolis ML -115
#464 Tennessee -2.5 (-120)
#459 Philadelphia +3 (-120)
#456 Minnesota +2
#474 LA Rams +7 (-125)
#471 Baltimore -1
#477 Jacksonville +5.5